July 30, 2010 - Daily Star

 

BEIRUT: While Friday’s summit in Beirut will likely focus on easing tensions here, it will not resolve the fundamental difference over the international tribunal among Lebanon’s factions, while the meeting will also help cement Syria’s resurgent position in Lebanon, a number of analysts told The Daily Star on Thursday.

“There will be an understanding on defusing the situation,” said Oussama Safa, executive director of the Lebanese Center for Policy Studies. “There is a very strong interest in keeping things cool in Lebanon. It’s a very positive meeting. It will probably continue the renewed commitment to the Doha accord.”

Saudi King Abdullah and Syrian President Bashar Assad will confer with President Michel Sleiman and other local leaders at Baabda Palace on Friday, in a move to restore some stability here after Hizbullah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah said last week his group would reject any indictment of its members by the Special Tribunal for Lebanon. Support for the tribunal’s investigation of the 2005 assassination of former Premier Rafik Hariri has long been a cornerstone of the March 14 political coalition, which is led by his son, Prime Minister Saad Hariri.

While declarations after the Abdullah-Assad summit will highlight calm and confidence, the continuing uncertainty over the looming tribunal indictment means that Friday will probably not mark a new Doha accord, said Paul Salem, head of the Carnegie Middle East Center. The March 14 camp and the Hizbullah-led March 8 alliance signed a deal in the Qatar capital in May 2008 to end days of civil strife, establish a unity cabinet and elect Sleiman.

“We’re in a pre-Doha phase,” Salem said. “We’re at the beginning of a period of rising tension, where there are two positions that are [opposed] to each other.” At the same time, Salem added, the situation remains rather peaceful despite the widely expected prospect that the tribunal will charge Hizbullah members with complicity in Hariri’s killing; members of Hizbullah and Saad Hariri’s Future Movement continue to work together in the Cabinet, although the possibility of Hizbullah’s implication has long been the worst fear of many in the March 14 faction, Salem said.

“Things are remarkably calm for what is a worst-case scenario,” he added.

Nevertheless, in spite of whatever accommodation springs from Friday’s meeting, the basic and seemingly intractable division over the tribunal will persist, said Hilal Khashan, who teaches political studies at the American University of Beirut. For Hizbullah, the court is an Israeli plot, while the Future Movement and its March 14 partners have not wavered in their respect for the tribunal, Khashan added.

Abdullah and Assad “cannot reconcile Hizbullah’s position with the position of the Future Movement on the matter,” Khashan said. “You have a division on a matter of principle.”

Friday’s air of bonhomie will also do little to alleviate Hariri’s unenviable position – if he accepts a potential indictment of Hizbullah members, he would rile Hizbullah, while rejecting an indictment would mean alienating his political partners, his mostly Sunni constituents and the international community, said retired General Elias Hanna, who teaches political science at various universities. “He is in a lose-lose situation,” Hanna said.

For Assad, meanwhile, the summit represents a milestone in the Arab world’s “recognizing and legitimizing Syrian control in Lebanon,” Khashan said.

Abdullah met with Assad in Damascus on Thursday before proceeding to Lebanon. Syria fell into Arab disfavor after Rafik Hariri’s February 2005 assassination; many in the March 14 coalition have accused Damascus of involvement in the killing, but Syria has always categorically denied any role in the crime. Mass demonstrations in Beirut in the weeks after the assassination led to the withdrawal of Syrian troops after a 29-year presence in Lebanon.

“Syria has won a new mandate in Lebanon,” Khashan added. “The next weeks will show everyone that Syria is returning to Lebanon.”

Syria’s return to prominence in Lebanon also illustrates how Damascus has become the nexus of the region’s geopolitics, Khashan said. After years of international isolation following suspicions in Hariri’s assassination, the Saudis have entered a rapprochement with Syria, while Khashan said he expected an Egyptian-Syrian rapprochement to begin soon, as Turkey also courts Damascus.

“Syria has become a regional prize,” Khashan added. “Everyone wants to be on the good side with Syria. Syria is cardinal within the region.”

The harmony expected to be in evidence on Friday also marks a turnaround in the regional atmosphere, Salem said. With Ankara and Cairo joining Abdullah’s new collaboration with Syria, a new era has taken root of regional actors working together to address regional issues – with the US and Iran largely on the sidelines, Salem added.

“The regional dynamic is one of cooperation, whereas three years ago it was one of outright confrontation,” he said.

While these latest regional developments mirrored in Friday’s summit appear to be an encouraging sign, they do little to clarify how the coming phase will play out in Lebanon, Khashan said. For example, Syria’s regaining much influence here leaves Hizbullah “confused,” because the two allies have had shaky moments in their relationship – Hizbullah senior commander Imad Mughniyeh was assassinated while visiting Damascus in 2008 – and their interests are not always identical, Khashan added.

In the end, regardless of whatever deal might be reached on Friday, and regardless of how much sway Syria recoups in Lebanon, Hizbullah’s response to any tribunal indictment will largely determine the course of events in Lebanon, Khashan said. Although the tribunal has consistently refrained from giving any information about whether Hizbullah – or anyone else – has been a target of its investigation, tribunal President Antonio Cassese told The Daily Star in May that he was expecting the court’s prosecutor to file a request for indictment between September and December.

“The question is, does Hizbullah want to keep the peace or not?” Khashan asked. “The ball is in Hizbullah’s court. Hizbullah will decide the next move in Lebanon.”